Despite some occasional difficulties and setbacks, the global biotechnology industry continues to show impressive promise. We expect world biotech product sales to reach $133 billion in 2014.

The key to industry growth remains in human therapeutics, although diagnostics, including work on bioterrorism detection and defense, have recently gained in importance. CRC analysts expect U.S. biotechnology product sales to grow at an average annual rate of 11 percent over the coming decade, exceeding $73 B dollars by 2014.

Human Therapeutics
By far the largest of the five biotechnology categories, human therapeutics will maintain this position well into the 21st century. Over the next decade, biotech-based U.S. human therapeutics sales should grow at an average annual rate of 11 percent, from nearly $20 B in 2004, to $56 B in 2014.

Human Diagnostics
This remains the second largest segment in the biotech industry. As new genetics-based technologies are developed, human diagnostics sales are expected to grow at an average annual rate of six percent, from about $3.4 B in 2004, to more than $6 B in 2014.

Agriculture
Though this segment represents a much smaller biotech market than both human therapeutics and diagnostics, it will grow somewhat more rapidly. Consulting Resources expects U.S. agbio product sales to enjoy an average annual growth rate of 14 percent, increasing from $1.9 B in 2004, to $7.0 B in 2014. Although protests against the use of GMO’s have occurred, this issue has continued to fade as public concern is shifted towards more immediate threats. The use of genetically modified corn in the United States is expected to remain relatively steady, while the use of genetically modified soybeans is expected to grow significantly in the next several years.

Specialties
Specialties are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 12 percent, from more than $900 million (MM) in 2004, to about $2.8 B in 2014, making this the second fastest growing segment in the U.S., after agriculture. The sector is comprised of chemical and biological products created using biotechnology, including enzymes and bioplastics.

Non-medical diagnostics
This sector constitutes the smallest of the five market segments. It includes diagnostics for food contaminants, such as pesticides and other hazardous chemicals. U.S. non-medical diagnostics sales are expected to grow at an average annual rate of ten percent, from $500 MM in 2004, to about $1.3 B in 2014.

Several suspected bioterrorism attacks in the United States, brought with them a surge of interest in the non-medical diagnostics sector. As a result, numerous biotechnology companies have begun to develop tests for potential bioterrorism agents. Among the many companies working on developing rapid diagnostic tests in this area are Cepheid (Sunnyvale, CA) and Nanogen (San Diego, CA). The Bush administration's budget for fiscal 2004 included more than $100 B for bio-defense related R&D, which boosted growth in this field.

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U.S. BIOTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT SALES FORECAST*
(millions of dollars)

* To be conservative, our sales forecasts for agriculture include genetically enhanced crops on a value-added bases, rather than on the basis of total seed or crop revenues.